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Without knowing what the hardware and service support will be, the software is practically irrelevant.  Consumer adoption will rely on 2 things: 1) can I get this phone for my plan, and 2) is it a good value for the money?  The iPhone is a decent value for the money, but having to switch plans turns off an enormous swath of the market.  There are other phones which work on many networks, i.e. blackberry-style phones, but they aren't that great a value for the money (no wifi, etc).  

If the gPhone allows free wifi access, connectivity to any given cell network, and 3rd party development support, it will become as big as the iPhone very quickly, and easily surpass the iPhone within a few quarters.  The iPhone would become the Beta to gPhone's VCR, even if the gPhone isn't quite as good, because the gPhone would be "unlocked" by default.  If the gPhone isn't unlocked, it will just become a second-class version of the iPhone, even if it's better software.

If it wasn't for Google's name at the top of the 'alliance' list, I'd write off the entire project as 'going to waste a lot of peoples time and unlikely to produce any products of note. However, Google has the brand, the resources and the financial muscle to help the Open Handset Alliance (OHA) work.

It should be borne in mind that creating a modern phone Operating System is hard though. The alliance will find it easy to produce mid-level, unadventurous phones, but competing with Nokia's flagship S60 smartphones and Apple's iPhone is another matter. Creating a 3.5G aware OS, with Wi-Fi and WiMax, Bluetooth 2.0 and other communications technologies all thrown into the mix and expected to work seamlessly together on a single chip is very, very hard. Symbian has managed it after years of hard work, Microsoft has more or less cracked it (just) and Apple are still climbing the learning curve. Muscling into this arena with a new OS is a very brave thing to do.

Sounding a cautionary note on the Android saga, it's unlikely that any significant features will appear only on an OHA platform/device. Google's own applications already run on all existing smartphones, whether S60, Windows Mobile 6 or even the iPhone (with Apple's help!) and the degree to which Google-produced native PIM/email/Office/mapping software is available on the existing market leaders is not going to reduce. In fact, it will increase. Making it even harder for OHA devices to make an impact in the future.

A secondary cautionary note needs to be that devices based on Android won't be in the shops until the END of 2008, realistically, and possibly even later. That's a lot of time in the phone business and Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Motorola, HTC, Samsung and Apple aren't going to be standing still. And yes, some of those names are associated with OHA as well, hedging their bets, but their core Symbian/Windows Mobile/OS X products will develop faster and be more consistently implemented.

Has Google got the might to pull this off and create a new market leader from scratch. If I were a betting man, I'd bet against it in the next five years. Beyond that, you'd need to rent me a crystal ball...

This week's announcement of Google's open source mobile platform, Android, has spurred a shock wave of buzz and speculation of potential implications for the mobile Internet sector. The specific technology is still largely under wraps until the SDK is released next week, but I foresee Android setting a new standard in mobile computing and delivering it to a mass audience. Call it evolution.

One key possibility that seems imminent is the interactivity between different functions of a given handset. Cell phones today are commonly equipped with SMS, digital camera and camcorder, Internet browsers, advanced contacts management tools and calendars, MP3 players, voice recorders, GPS navigation, BlueTooth, and the list continues to grow. From an application developer's standpoint, the inability to integrate these functions and make them work together currently prevents lots of cool things from happening. Therefore, since Google has a knack for solving problems like this, I predict that Android will make functional integration possible, even if it means allowing someone else to develop it.

Consumers will have access to smarter phone applications that tie-in all of their phone's capabilities to make life easier. Imagine yourself reading a cool article via your mobile Internet browser -- you decide to share it with your colleague, but how? If your mobile browser could talk to your phone's SMS capability, you could send your colleague a text message with the URL. This may sound simple, but this sort of interactivity is not possible on today's mainstream handsets. So when?

The first Android-based phone will not ship until the latter half of 2008, so consumers will have to sit tight until then. Once the ball gets rolling however, Android is likely to trigger an avalanche of competition, provoking other players in the industry to step up their game. Another key point for consumers is that Google's success is tied to providing consumers with ground-breaking technology at no cost to the end-user. Instead, advertising will be integrated so that corporate sponsors will cover any development costs (and then some!).

Android will raise the bar for the whole industry, to the benefit of consumers, and by offering an open platform they encourage every software developer around the globe to continue raising it. Exciting times are ahead in mobile computing!

This is an interesting alliance. I consider it to be "burning the candle from both ends".

But before I get into my insight, I think you need to understand the past-

Eric Schmidt is CEO of Google, and also on the board of directors of Apple. His previous jobs were at Sun Microsystems, and Novell. I point this out because in order to understand where you're going you need to understand where you've been.

Steve Ballmer has also been quoted in public documents that his ambition is to "Bury Eric Schmidt".

Consider: http://www.lot49.com/2005/09/microsofts_ballmer_vows_to_bur.shtml

I had an office down the hall from Steve Berkowitz. I learned that good ideas didn't come to light unless they were market-driven.

And here is where things get really foggy because Google has been able to execute on leading technology before others go to market.

I believe that the GPhone will respect Jobs' efforts. GPhone will not try to be a "content pipe" and try to compete with Apple, as this is Apple's bread and butter. GPhone will try to aim itself squarely at the business user, and use YouTube for its content strategy while the iPhone focuses on the building relationships with "Big Content".

The GPhone will probably adopt a Qualcomm MSM-6800 chipset. While other solutions exist, it's easier for Google to adopt a single solution that applies to all networks. If this is the case it can support up to 4.0Mpixel camera. Some may disagree with my analysis, but considering that iPhone choose a Siemens-based chipset (maybe for inital cost savings) I think GPhone may go a different route and go with the MSM-6800... Especially when we factor in issues of "unlocking" during the Euro/UK unveiling.

I also believe Google has explored outside of Siemens and settle upon another solution, which is where I settled upon the MSM-6800. There's also the possibility that they may collaborate with Nokia on this one. Considering the promises being made and time frames to execute, I think GPhone will be Qualcomm 6800 based.

Functionally speaking, the GPhone will meet the needs of a "ProSumer" (See Wikinomics) and will initally meet the needs of the business userbase, but a few new functional things come to mind:

•  SGML support

• UMA/VoIP capabilities

• Standards-based Email

• Satellite GPS Location (To "properly" enable GoogleMaps)

• Location-based services (For advertising revenue)

• YouTube

• Home screen Desktop with RSS functionality

• Open Standards

• WiFi Radio
  

Through licensing agreements with Apple, I believe GPhone will have:

• Similar functionality such as touch screen, zoom, et al.

Google made it clear that the GPhone will be a platform for others to build upon, something the iPhone can't due to its "First to market" agreements with AT&T.

This is more significant than it seems. If you ask, what is a cellphone -- beyond voice, what additional features are consumers looking for? -- you'll realize there's no consensus answer. This "device category" is still new, which creates a very real opportunity for the classic "killer application." Just one indispensably-useful application would make Google's Android platform a must-have platform, re-defining the entire cellphone industry.

And it will probably be more than one. To see what might be coming for the Android platform, look at what's already been developed using Google's tools for grass roots programmers. Google Maps spawned dozens of creative mashups, including the ability to access location-sensitive bar guides, fast food restaurants, and NASA topographical data. One Google Maps mashup even shows news articles for map locations -- and another even shows Wikipedia entries!

These become even more useful with the addition of a global positioning system -- and Google has already integrated GPS capabilities in their Helio handheld. The Helio was marketed to tech-savvy consumers, so it gives another hint about Google's long-range amibitions. One of Helio's most unique features was its "Buddy Beacon," which instantly displayed the location of your friends on a map, based on the current position of their own Helio device.

Now imagine Google's Android platform being integrated with MySpace or Facebook -- with dozens of online acquaintances suddenly pinpointed at their "real space" locations. Since it's an open source platform, this could easily be developed -- and there's no reason other popular web destinations couldn't also port themselves onto Android-compatible devices. YouTube could not only develop the ability to display their videos on handheld devices, but the ability to easily share those videos with other handheld users. There could even be migrations to "cellphone space" by the users of massively multiplayer games like Second Life and World of Warcraft. Every web application is now potentially a phone application.

Android's release is currently scheduled for "the second half of 2008" -- which suggests consumers will have to wait for almost a year before they see any new capabilities. But then there'll be a flurry of activity, with dozens of easily-ported applications made available to handset manufacturers. The sudden slew of new capabilities could create a buzz around the Android platform -- signalling the launch of a new era in cellphones.

It would be foolish to underestimate the Android platform. Currently it's supported by 34 companies, including cellphone industry giants like T-Mobile and Motorola. Another alliance member is NTT Docomo, which has been in the cellphone busienss for nearly 20 years, and has 50 million customers (more than half of all customers in Japan). And on the developer side, there's thousands of enthusiastic Google developers who will now be able to reach millions of new devices, as well as users who are away from their desktops and travelling through real-world settings. They represent part of the beauty of an open source project. Besides the new applications that are easy to predict -- they'll also create new handheld applications that no one saw coming.

And consumers will be dazzled by how powerful their cellphones have become.

The Androids have landed and they are promising amazing Android phones.
Is this real or just a trick to get us to trust the GooglePlexers?

Google's Open Handset Alliance news is a major mobile development as it is likely to impact mobile hardware, mobile software, and long term cellular contracts far into the foreseeable future. A key unknown at this time is the speed with which these standards will be adopted. I'd argue that openness is inevitable (notice how quickly Apple's iPhone went from closed to open), but brand loyalty for the iPhone and some other models may slow what could otherwise be a major rush to devices that will likely show great innovation as a result of the Open Handset Alliance.

I think the key Gphone issues from a market perspective (which impacts users as well) relates to customer aquisition, customer retention, and the viability of mobile advertising. Branding and customer loyalty are increasingly trumped by cost and convenience and customers will probably change phones more often as innovation heats up. The iPhone could be a conspicuous exception as Apple products generally garner great customer loyalty.

It appears likely Google will use targeted advertising in innovative ways to keep phone or cellular contract costs down and that Open Handset Alliance partners will soon offer software that is broadly compatible with many new iPhone style devices. This may threaten the ability of struggling carriers like Sprint to stay viable in this market even as they copy the innovative revenue approaches of Google.

Will an open platform actually translate to desirable handsets that can compete with products like the iPhone?

Yes, expect a combination of small freelancers and corporate develops to bring extreme innovation to the space almost immediately thanks to the Android SDK. Look for iPhone style phones at lower cost and look for improvements to the iPhone's brilliant phone which has now set the standard for high function, rich media mobile devices.

Will the target market for the Open Handset Alliance be mid-level phones?
I think in general no, but it will allow mid-level phones to have richer feature sets at the same or lower cost.
Expect all phone costs to drop dramatically and the market to focus on cellular and data plans, broadband services, and customer loyalty.

What are some features that might result from the open platform that might not come about on a closed platform?
Nothing specific to open platform, but expect innovation to explode as developers enter this market and innovation is rewarded. More niche phones may come about where, for example, better keyboards are available for users who need that while iPhone style keyboards are used for media intense devices where little typing is done. Expect greater convergence of computer and mobile functionality and superb synchronizing of all devices. Ideally I think this will lead to a "two device" world where we have one mobile device as phone/PDA/Video and Music player and another as our home computer and entertainment system with one modest sized and one huge high def screen. The devices will synch seamlessly and work or pleasure can be done from any device at any time with seamless, real time interconnectivity.

How long will consumers have to wait before Google's efforts pay off?
Merry Christmas 2008! I think devices using Android will be out for Christmas, though it'll be a push and they won't be the best of the crop.

Note: Some of this answer was taken from my own blog posts on these topics, and a piece from a Techdirt insight I wrote recently.