About This Case

Closed

4 Jun 2007, 11:59PM PT

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Posted

21 May 2007, 12:00AM PT

Industries

  • Consumer Services / Retail Industry
  • Energy / Utilities
  • Enterprise Software & Services
  • IT / IT Security
  • Internet / Online Services / Consumer Software
  • Media / Entertainment
  • Start-Ups / Small Businesses / Franchises
  • Telecom / Broadband / Wireless

Placing Bets On Telco Before The Year Runs Out..

 

Closed: 4 Jun 2007, 11:59PM PT

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If you were advising a private equity group that had an interest in consumer telecommunication services, where would you invest in the next 6 months? What areas have at least double-digit growth potential? Restrict your responses to North America.

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My advice would be to invest in any mobile service that is working in the following areas:

* Non-subscription premium SMS services (services delivered to mobile handsets, charged by premium SMS, that are single-sale, NON-recurring billing services). Services where the response is personalised/live, not automated. (The right type of service can easily see triple digit growth - as I have seen in my own implementation of such services :) ) Corollary: Fixed-price and single-sale services that make use of premium SMS or WAP billing.

* Smart LBS services that don't rely on the carrier's location API and aren't 'track yourchild/find your nearest bar/restaurant/bus stop' type services. Try LBS-based games.

* Made for mobile social networks that provide a lot of different services under one roof (not web social networks rebranded/repurposed for mobile - they're doomed to fail as they all try and replicate the web service on mobile, which just doesn't work). The focus needs to be 'design for mobile use, add web use later' to ensure that the access type, content and services 'just work' on a mobile. This can include chat services, but should be solely focussed on chat services.

* WAP-based services (not XHTML or the 'mobile web'). WAP is available on more handsets than XHTML or HTML rendering, and WAP usage is rising.

While personally I am not a big fan of mobile TV, I would still be very interested in any investment opportunities in this space. The mobile TV industry is still running trials in several countries and not in a final stage, but by next year, I expect to see the action heat up by several levels.

I have been fortunate enough to consult with a startup that deals with advertising in mobile TV programs, and judging by the plethora of opportunities available here, you can't afford to miss it out. Lots of innovative ideas and patents being created, and with almost every major manufacturer having cell phones with TV capabilities, I would put my money there.

If consumers thought iPod on the cell phone was cool, I can assure you mobile TV will be mind-blowing.

Within consumer telecommunications, one area of big growth potential is mobile video social networks. We are already seeing a surge of operators move into this space, such a T-Mobile with VidUP, Telestra, and Qualcomm investing in vendors that can enable this.

It seems that mobile carriers are looking to lock in customers and also invite new ones by building out their own private Mobile Social Networks -- if one particular proprietary network can get a lot of viral videos from cellphone users shooting pics on the go, this creates a strong incentive for other people to switch to that carrier just for that "exclusive community".

The companies that become prime investment targets are then companies such as Intercasting Corporation or Pixsense, who offer to be the bridge between social networks and carriers, providing the technology to carriers on-demand.

The next step -- as web social networks such as Facebook and MySpace are currently seeing an epxlosion of -- will be the value-added applications on top of the social networks.

These value-additions could include applications similar to IQZone -- which offers a way to put up classified listings of used items from your mobile phones -- and others which could very well be as advanced as Ebay.

In my view, investments in the next 6 months should either be in technology vendors enabling proprietary social networks in mobile carriers, or otherwise in technology vendors that are creating "value-added application aggregation" platforms that can integrate seamlessly with those networks.

I would be looking at VoIP plays who could step into Vonage's shoes if they get forced to shut down due to patent infringement.  Someone will step in and scoop up the business if it happens.

I'd also be looking at WiMax providers but not for a return anytime soon - perhaps more speculative that one.

 

I think you're being quite restrictive with just 'telco services in North America'.  It wouldn't be my first-choice for investments as money and profits low are low  and tight in this are right now .