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In the general case people will be happy with the flat fee structure.  However, there are drastic differences that emerge on the services compared with a theoretical "unlimited" service.  First of all, the Sprint "Simply Everything" plan will be revealed to have limitations as all of the "unlimited" plans have.  For example, I have friends who hacked their smartphones and slingbox'ed their home TV so they could watch TV on your smartphone... that didn't last.  Obviously there are limits in the range of a sustained bandwidth equivalent to a few gigs per month.

Furthermore, on flat-rate plans, the quality of services really start to stand out.  For example, if you are paying 99 per month for unlimited calls but you only get through 60-80% of the time, that can really add up to a liability on your service.  However, if you are offered 99% connectivity coverage for an additional 30-40 per month on another carrier, that unlimited service starts to look much more attractive. 

The inexpensive carriers made money for a long time because they were so cheap that relative to another limited plan, if you didn't get through the first time it was no big deal.  Once customers get the idea that they should be able to "always connect" to people, the services with the better connectivity and service will look way more attractive, since they can truly offer the connectivity people expect.

 The fact that I should even consider buying Airave, which in my understanding is like a mini signal booster, is ridiculous.  I am not responsible for the company's coverage, and I expect my monthly fee to cover as close to "unlimited" coverage and service as they can get.  If they can't deliver without extra hardware, I'd just switch to someone that can deliver the coverage. 

 The long-term effect of "unlimited" plans is that they will come down in cost and everyone will have an unlimited plan.  However, the coverage of various providers will make people gravitate to the premium plans, and the low-cost alternatives will likely get bought out by each other to remain competitive with the premium plans.  Ultimately, there will be just a few levels of service - a very expensive complete coverage, a medium level with decent "home" coverage, and a low level that just barely works, that is always on the verge of going out of business, with crazy-sounding deals, etc. 

I was pretty excited about the first versions of unlimited plans that came out.  Until I actually looked at the pricing.  At $100 per person, you have to be a pretty heavy user of your cell phone to want the plan.  I'm currently a Sprint User, and the wife and I are looking into Smart Phones (she desperately wants the iPhone).  We were looking at other carriers, as our contract is up, and we're free agents looking for a deal. Having the unlimited plan does make a difference, as I use the phone for work to send picture, video, to Utter, and to Twitter.  Prior to the plan, I wasn't even considering staying with Sprint. 

Unlimited plans in general will boost adoption of almost of the mobile services.  Fear of overage charges and nightmare stories of people getting $10,000 bills (I heard another one last week where a kid got a $10,000 bill for watching TV on his phone) stops people from signing up for Text clubs, watching videos, or sending pictures. I know we dropped our data plan when we realized how little we were using it, but that was over two years ago.  I constantly have uses for mobile products, for myself and clients, but don't want to change my plan to test a new product out.  The unlimited plan takes away all of that concern.  

Right now I pay $125 for three phones with shared minutes and some extra services like calls to Canada.  Switching to the iPhone or another carrier and adding a data plan was going to run me about $170, but still keep me restricted. With unlimited plans, I'm now still looking at Sprint, but whoever I go with, I'll be able to test and play for only $200 for two phones, with all of the options. 

This will take a while to sink in, and we'll have to see how much further prices drop, and if there are conditions or teaser rates that apply, but if a company can stick to a low, simple rate - I think users will respond by finally embracing mobile marketing. 2008 is too soon, but I think we'll start to see the effects by mid-2009, as enough people have unlimited plans, and it becomes clear that the hassle of looking for the best deal is replaced by hundreds of new features and apps that actually make our lives easier. 

From my blog, situational marketing:  [With unlimited plans], "the attitudinal concerns consumers have about text clubs, coupons, and even mobile newsletters will be a question of convenience, and not cost.  Mobile will have caught up to e-mail and the internet as low-cost alternatives to the users.  If I'm already paying for it, I'll use it.  Why do you think people take such long showers in condos (water use is often covered as part of your fees in condo developments)?"

The gravitation towards affordable, unlimited data plans is inevitable.  The vast majority of handsets worldwide are capable of at least WAP browsing, with many now offering full-web browsing as well. However, there remains a sharp disparity between this capability and consumer adoption. The current cost of data plans -- especially those that are priced by usage, or a-la-carte data plans -- is one of two major barriers to mass adoption of the mobile Internet. The second major barrier is the poor usability of existing mobile browsers, but new solutions to this problem are being introduced almost every day -- smarter applications, better web browsers, and improved overall usability. Independent developers worldwide have the power to develop solutions to the usability problem, but few will bother investing their efforts to do so if consumers can't afford the data plans necessary to use them. Therefore, it is up to the carriers to loosen their chokehold on data plans. The recent introduction of unlimited data plans from several US carriers can be taken as evidence that they are finally getting the message.

Anyone observing the mobile industry in recent years can see that there is a global movement underway to bring all the power and access of the home computer to the mobile device. The future of Internet access is mobile, and Sprint has gone the extra mile to offer a holistic solution that meets all the needs of today's wireless subscribers -- music, TV, GPS, Internet, SMS, and... oh yeah, it's also a phone. :-) Most carriers will offer all of the above functionality as separate add-ons to their voice plans, but Sprint has added value to their offering by bundling all the existing technologies into one simple package. Other carriers will be quick to follow suit.

Consumers will readily adopt features beyond SMS when it becomes affordable for them to do so. One can look to global markets (particularly Asia and Western Europe) as examples of consumer uptake when the cost barrier is lowered. Most US consumers can use the mobile Internet without upgrading their handsets. Some older handsets will not support streaming media (TV and music) but carriers will continue to subsidize the cost of upgrading hardware when necessary, therefore minimizing or eliminating the cost of adoption for consumers.

The cost of Sprint's new unlimited plan will be the most significant hindrance to consumer adoption. For example, I have been a Sprint customer for 6 years. I currently have a flexible voice plan that varies in price based on how many daytime minutes I use each month. Since I don't talk on the phone very much, it would not behoove me to pay for an unlimited voice plan. Instead I subscribe to Sprint's $15/ month unlimited data plan on top of my voice plan (usually $35/ month) and SMS plan (500 text messages for $5/ month). This gets me access to everything I need (voice, data, and SMS) for about $65/ month, making an upgrade to a plan that costs $100/ month a bad idea for me. Even if Sprint’s new Airave service was included in the Simply Everything plan, I would not subscribe because I already do everything I need to for ~$65/ month. Therefore, there is no incentive for me to spend 50% more on my wireless plan. However, for someone who talks more the Simply Everything plan would make more sense. Many wireless subscribers who use a lot of daytime minutes are already paying $100+/ month. Other consumers who frequently use a home phone (traditional telephony or VOIP) could drop their monthly phone bills and upgrade to Sprint's Simply Everything plan (that is, if Airave were included) and potentially reduce their overall monthly phone bills.

The long-term effects of unlimited wireless plans will be mass consumer adoption of all the new mobile technologies. Mobile handsets will surpass the home computer as a preferred way to access the Internet. Mass adoption will in turn ignite a chain reaction of mobile technology development, leading to the introduction of new tools and applications that are yet to be conceived. In sum, the introduction of unlimited wireless service plans will be a major catalyst for a mobile revolution that is both imminent and already underway. Exciting times are on the horizon for this industry!