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Mobile computing, in the sense of using laptops in an "untethered" or "nomadic" way (sitting at your favourite cafe, working away at your company documents), is already here - and being very widely used, in Europe and Japan.

In Europe, mobile broadband is now widely available in most countries (at reasonable rates), and it was the USB dongles for 3G which made it take off; in Japan, people have been using PC cards for mobile networks (first PHS, then 3G) for a very long time (indeed, it is so cheap and pervasive that public wi-fi networks have not taken off).

And now, we are already seeing laptops with built-in mobile data modules coming out. We are even seeing Vodafone giving away laptops when people sign up for a mobile data subscription (flat-rate, no less).

Smartphones will continue to explode, but they are still hard to use for email and agendas - the functions where they are useful in a mobile computing context. But the latest smartphones (iPhone, and the SonyEricsson Z1) are already small computers, with a better form factor. If the user interface would not be so much better, it would be hard to tell that they have much more processing power than my laptop had a few years ago.

There will be more and more vendors offering the built-in data modules for laptops, and that will be the next step. Subnotebooks can only shrink to a certain limit, and the mobile phones can only become smarter, so those are the milestones.

Mostly, they have already happened, though. We are already in the era of mobile internet devices. And have been for some time. Welcome.

Part of the reason that so-called 'netbooks' have taken off is that they've hit upon a sweet spot in terms of form factor that's been there for ages.

Psion knew that when they created the Series 7 and netBook (Hmm... note the name!) back in 1999 - something that was large enough to type properly on and which had a readable screen, but which folded to be small enough to pack in your briefcase.

Jeff Hawkins knew that when he created the Foleo companion product for his Palm Treos.

Both the above creations were failures - Psion because they 'sold up' and the Foleo because it was priced at a stupid level and then canned anyway - but the vision was there and the current success of netbooks has proved their creators right.

The modern netbook tends to run Linux or Windows XP and, allied to a 3G USB dongle, gives you everything you need to run a mobile office in a lot less bulk and often with longer battery life than a standard laptop.

From the phone world, the HTC Touch Pro and Nokia E90 are the best and most popular devices to challenge the netbook's role, but I don't see this class of super-smartphone challenge the netbook, let alone the laptop.

There never has been 'one device to rule them all' and there are an infinite continuum of user needs and preferemces to take into account. The Nokia E90, for example, can be used as a phone to all intents and purposes, and yet it gives you qwerty typing and Office file handling when needed in an emergency. But there's absolutely no way you'd only take the E90 (or a similar device) with you on a 3 day business trip - there are still many things for which you need a larger, clearer screen, greater storage and a faster processor - not to mention Windows (or Linux) app compatibility.

Similarly, netbooks start to seriously lose their power once the screen and keyboard get too small. The Asus Eee 701 is the smallest and cheapest netbook and it's frustrating to use for long periods. 

The vacuum between the E90/Touch Pro and netbook form factors won't be filled because the two use cases are essentially different - and the concept of what is and isn't 'acceptable' as a 'phone' is fairly fixed in the public consciousness.

I'm asked whether I'd buy a Nokia netbook - this is (at the OS level, anyway) essentially what the Psion netBook was - and yes, I bought one. But S60, for example, was conceived as an interface for one-handed use on a cellphone - it doesn't scale brilliantly for larger screens and the general public would find it as much a kludge as the geeks.

The most significant future change will be the greater and greater connectivity and functionality of the phone, whether or not it has a qwerty keyboard. But the form factor is unlikely to change much from the classic iPhone/Nokia-5800/Blackberry Storm style - we're not talking about increasing physical bulk and closing the gap on netbooks.

The only inelegance is perhaps that both your netbook and phone will have telephony (i.e. with a SIM card) - there are ways to share, but you then risk the battery life of the latter! In these days when multiple phones-per-person aren't uncommon, we shouldn't be any more worried about having an extra SIM in a netbook too...

If I have to type (I type about 60 wpm, and don't mind it, but it does require being fully occupied, as opposed to true multitasking) then I cannot see the value of sub- or sub-sub-notebook technology, except as a convenient gimmick. If (really WHEN) the industry makes the leap (it will take AI, so it will not be soon) of conversant computing, that is, a <computational unit> that holds friendly chats with you, or reads your mind (we are close to having  the computational unit be an extension of our brains), THEN we have a true "gotta have it". Unfortunately, with a society that considers the best of us as "just geeks", we will have to wait for Europe or Asia to develop the needed technology.

Extending simple keyboard entry is "gee-whiz" stuff, and will make money, but it is not life-style changing. It is simply a fad - the backbone technology is still basically the desktop unit.

OOPS! Specific questions were asked and ignored - sorry about that!

Will these approaches eventually converge?  

No - keyboard entry is just that and nothing more - except to impress others.

Would you buy a Nokia subnotebook?  

Cost - benefit! How  do you answer that question without it? As to benefit, it really adds very little to browsing or entry - it may impress people, so set a price and we will see.

How will 3G data plans affect the evolution of mobile computing?

Faster and more convenient is better - how much? How much does it cost?

How would you predict the growth of smarterphone (or sub-subnotebook) adoption?  

How long will it impress your friends to justify the cost?

What factors will accelerate the growth of mobile computing?  

Conversant computing - you talk to your friend, the <computing unit>.

What sort of milestones will signify a new era of mobile internet devices?  

If I can talk to a computer (or have it read my mind) and get reasonable responses, we're there.

When will these milestones occur?

Unfortunately, when Europe and/or Asia get around to it. This needs governmental support and funding, and our government would rather spend the money bullying people.

First, mobile phones with keyboards are very useful for text messaging and other mobile applications.  These will likely continue to advance until there is a mobile phone that has essentially the same functions and power as a PC.

A subnotebook or internet tablet that could make phone calls would be a huge deal, and would probably result in a lot of disruption to the mobile phone market as we know it.  Again, adding this functionality would yield a "phone" with similar functions to a PC.

However, despite this convergence, neither of these would be a phone that can do everything a PC can do because of the required size of a phone.  Even a sub-notebook has too little screen real estate for me, so using a mobile phone will always demand some kind of screen real-estate management that prevents me from doing all that I can do with a real PC or other device with a large screen. 

So what is the hypothetical convergence that would benefit people in my situation?  Well, one day I could connect my mobile phone to a larger screen.  This will provide me with the screen real estate at the sacrifice of mobility, and it would allow me to use one device to essentially replace my "computer" with a phone.

Next, the phone OS would have to be able to support a lot more server type functionality for use by developers in place of today's PC and midrange systems.  A mobile phone with the equivalent horsepower and storage to a desktop that could run real windows XP pro (or equivalent), but that also made phone calls, and that had some interface like a laptop dock for use with larger monitor and keyboard configurations, would truly be a game-changing device.

Laptops and mobile devices will never converge into a subnotebook device.  Mobile devices allow remote users to easily access data while on the move but without a full keyboard and screen their usefulness is will always be limited.  Having demo'ed the Fujisu Lifebook, the keyboard is limited for users with larger hands and screen is hard to read for users with bad eyes.  The beauty of a mobile device like an iPhone, Blackberry, or Windows Mobile phone is that they extend functionallity in a small package.  Users will never carry a Subnotebook in a holster on their hip or stuffed in their purse.  I personally would never purchase or use a subnotebook.

Mobile high speed data plans have allowed mobile computing to be come truly mobile.  Mobile broadband at 3G speed allows users to have a usable mobile computing experience.  Cellular data connections were limited in their functionality especially when it came to Web 2.0 sites.  This has changed drastically with 3G networks.

I predict smartphone adoption to grow as business begin to realize ROI from extending their networks to these devices from both an internal and external standpoint.  These numbers are further compounded as consumers access more and more of their data on the go.  Users want to access their data when and where they choose.  This trend is backed by Gartner Research who's figures show that worldwide Smartphone sales grew 29 percent in the Q1 of 2008(Gartner, 2008)  alone. 

A new era of mobile internet devices has already been reached with the extension of the 3G network to handheld devices.  This trend will continue to grow as more businesses extend their mobile capabilities and consumers purchase devices that integrate with their online lifestyle.

Here's a simple, and perhaps coarse, barometer of the significance of mobile computing: When you realize that you are browsing full webpages on a handheld touch screen device... in the bathroom... then you know the game has changed.

Proof that we have already 'taken off'

• Apple says that the iPhone is outselling RIM, and Steve Jobs added that iPhone is now 39 percent of their business, Apple is now world's "third largest mobile phone supplier."
• AT&T: 2.4 million 3G iPhones activated from July to September
• Your father or mother might actually know what you are talking about if you throw out terms like "G1" and "Android" - and if they don't, they're now smart enough to "Google it" (maybe even on their iPhone)
• The "Google Phone" alluded to above is now on the market thanks to T-Mobile. The open-source nature of Android, creates healthy competition with Windows Mobile, and the iPhone
• The total costs associated with being mobile are a lot lower now. It used to be a luxury of well-to-do business people to have unlimited wireless broadband access on the road. Now the kid down the street could be on AT&T's best plan.
• Many cloud storage services and other utilities are making it easier for people to access files stored on remote or host-PC storage. Box.net is a good example.
• The "App Store" model of software delivery, that was popularized by Apple, is serving as a fine blueprint for competitors like RIM, Google, and Microsoft. The idea of accessing an AppStore on your mobile device, and instantly purchasing/downloading what you want, will soon be as commonplace as downloading music on your mobile device.
• In a smart move, many web-based and traditional software services are creating apps for mobile devices that aim to complement the overall workflow of their core applications - rather than attempting to replace or recreate the desktop experience of their primary products. Salesforce.com is a good example of this.

Barriers and other turbulence

• Current 'hot' mobile devices are still not great for a significant amount of typing. Until you can comfortably write a full proposal, or hack out a PowerPoint presentation on one, the laptop will remain king. The Apple blog has done their best to consider whether an iPhone could actually be a laptop replacement. At minimum, mobile devices are certainly reducing the number of tasks you actually need a laptop to a accomplish.
• Devices may not be fully compatible with enterprise networks, but again utilities are closing the gap on these kinds of issues.
• Increased competition among app developers may lead to an 'AppStore Bubble', where so many developers flood into the market that it makes it more difficult for users to find reliable applications and services.
• Cross-device compatibility may cause users to hold off using particular devices until their favorite services become available for the specific device they are interested in.
• 'Deer internets Can u hearz me now?' speed, reliability, and coverage will continue to give people pause, as they consider moving more of their important productivity task over to mobile devices.

The next two years will see a huge leap in mobile computing, innovative user experiences, and a broader adoption of technology that seamlessly allows users to move from desktop, to device, to 'the cloud'.

There's a thief at the gate of the mobile phone market called the "sub notebook." Don't be worried, he won't get in.  Sadly, it is a one trick pony that smart phones will easily gobble up and leave by the side of the superhighway.

The IKIT by IMOVIO sells itself as "a dedicated chat, email and internet accessory and unlike smartphones it is fully optimised for that purpose."  Intended as a low cost compliment a users cell phone, the IKIT looks like a mini-laptop, with a QWERTY/ AZERTY keyboard it is expected to appeal to youth or travelers who want quick and easy access to internet, messaging, and searching capabilites. The IKIT's limited functionality will severely limit it's appeal. It requires a 3G enabled phone or wifi to access the internet, and requires a dongle to use a USB drive or headphones.

The IKIT press release notes that it "opens up a market to a previously disenfranchised demographic that can neither afford, or fully utilise a smartphone or laptop."  Though this may be true on a limited basis, there will not be enough to sustain the market.  It will not gain traction in the youth market for this very reason, it will be the Keds in the Reebok market.  Youth will not want to be seen with the discount model of the smart phone.  Creating a discount version of a desired product and calling it optomized will not make the sub-notebook successful.

Travelers who need the functionality of a browser will likely be using a Blackberry or other smartphone with browser capabilities and many have their own QWERTY keyboards as well.  Though the IKIT offers a slightly larger keyboard than a most smartphones, a little over 3 1/2 inches, it's not large enough to give relief from cramped typing on a small keyboad.  Many smart phones offer the abiltiy to use a docking or wireless keyboard giving them a necessary couple of keyboard inches giving them greater freedom for using it as a mobile computer.

Something the IKIT gets right is the webcam. Smart phones of the future should have a functional webcam to truely be traveling alternative to the laptop.  On a smart phone it will need the ability to swivel to either face the user for use as a web camera or away from the user a la the current camera phone.  However, on a "sub-notebook" this is not enough of a redeming quality for consumer to purchase and carry the additional hardware.

Sub-notebooks don't make alot of sense in the current market.  Though their price is significantly less than smartphones, the people who need the functionality of a traveling computer will use a smartphone or take their laptop.  There will be some consumers who want an inexpensive mobile browser, but these will not be enough to sustain the market for this type of hardware. The sub-notebook, at least in its current form, will be a non-starter and will not threaten the smartphone market. If the sub-notebook is to be successful, it need to offer greater stand alone capabilities, and define itself as a product rather than trying to scrape off a piece of the work of laptops and smart phones into a discount item.

It has always been obvious that mobile business users need the flexibility of UC and multimodal "smart phones." In turn, such users need enterprise support for mobile access to business process applications and information that are device and interface independent. One big hangup from the enterprise perspective is the concern of enterprise security for such access, and there has been resistance from IT management to allow end users to deploy their consumer-oriented mobile devices, e.g., iPhones, for business applications.

The real solution to the security problem is to eliminate the need to store proprietary information on mobile devices and allow individual business users access on a secure, trusted basis to network-based servers. That approach is becoming more practical with "virtualized" application services that tie in with hosted services (SaaS) and SOA. In other words, once you want to support mobile end users off premise, it will no longer be done just by premise-based networks, application servers, and software and it must be both device and network independent for public access.

Needless to say, the service providers that host such enterprise applications will have to be reliable and trusted for 24x7 availability and security. Business users will then be able to use any mobile device that they want to support both their personal consumer service needs and also access authorized business applications for their job responsibilities. This concept is now being tested by Citrix, with their "Bring Your Own Computer"  (BYOC) policy, where they pay their mobile employees to buy a laptop of their own choosing, providing that their business applications are "virtualized," not stored in the laptop, and controlled through an enterprise-supplied software client. For handheld "smart phones," this  kind of approach approach is absolutely essential.

There are 3 conditions that need to be met before mobile computing will become as commonplace as mobile voice communication is today.

Ubiquitous Connectivity: Today, internet connectivity is still a mish-mash of various connectivity platforms. Open wifi connections, 3G access cards for laptops, retailer supplied access such as Panera Bread or Starbucks, paid plans at airport, etc. It's still too much of a hassle for anybody who isn't a road warrior. On the road access is still a "nice to have" for me. I use it if available, but I don't count on it. Mobile internet access will need to "just work" much like mobile voice access does today, without the user worrying about which network they are on, which password they need to remember, and how much it might cost.

Price: Closely related to access availability is access cost. When non metered non-limited mobile bandwidth is a standard component of either your ISP or mobile phone plan, you'll see usage really take off. It's close today, as Blackberry and iPhone users are getting close to the digital nirvana of always on access. However even those services still are somewhat limited in what you can do online, and how much you can consume. Also, as the price of netbooks continues to drop they will become more and more common. When the netbook costs $99 it will become common for even casual travelers to keep one just for travel duty, leaving the normal laptop PC at home. That level of consumer adoption will drive demand for access availability that is not tethered to a phone device.

Cloud computing adoption will also have to become more common. An always connected netbook is great, until you need that Excel spreadsheet that is on your laptop back home. Consumers will have to become much more comfortable with leaving everything in the cloud so that it is available to them from any device at any time.

I would expect that the adoption of netbooks and the expectation of connectivity anywhere at anytime to be closely related. For the immediate future, I think it will remain in the domain of digital nomads and road warriors that due to their situation, have to figure out mobile access. Everybody else will be much slower to adopt. Broadband penetration in the US just topped 50% of households recently. It's possible mobile high speed access may come to the laggards in that group quicker than traditional broadband, but it's probably unlikely. They'll lag in mobile connectivity too.

There are two important trends that will impact the ever shrinking laptops and burgeoning productivity of mobile phones. (1) Humans tend to prefer simplicity and the convergence of devices into a single companion tool will always be attractive. (2) Applications are moving toward the cloud, which is a throwback to the networks with terminals days where each user machine simply displayed what the server sent.

On convergence, there is a usability challenge for many people because they don't want to conduct their task intensive work on a palm-sized screen. Also right now there are too many applications that require the kind of horsepower only a laptop or desktop can provide; the full version of Microsoft Office comes to mind. Right now it wouldn't work well to run a full version of Microsoft Word on an iPhone because of available process power and RAM. But, even Microsoft is jumping on board with the cloud computing trend. That could provide functionality to a lot more devices through the latest version of the terminal: browsers.

Another challenge with convergence is the inherent diversity that thrives online. Developers create productivity solutions for a variety of open source and commercial platforms that aren't immediately compatible with emerging mobile platforms. Of course, in the instances of the Apple iPhone and Google Android, developers have embraced the environments with great enthusiasm. And, given the ubiquitous adoption of mobile phones it seems reasonable that users and developers would both flock toward a universally converged device that provides 90% of the functionality inherent with each merged component.

But, as with most things, leaders on the web have already started to address this compatibility issue by pulling more of the processing toward the server. Cloud applications like Gmail, Picnik, and Zamzar are great examples. Users see an interface surfaced through a browser but their personal computer does little more than display page elements in a browser as directed by the server.

That means the demand for more processing power provided by subnotebooks has the potential to decline on a grand scale. There will always be some users who need more functionality though, and so segments of users will still demand a more powerful device. That's especially poignant when considering an IT user who needs access to a variety of different ports, or a programmer who needs to install an old compiler that's only compatible with Windows.

So what potentially makes subnotebooks worthwhile?

• Larger screen
• Easier to install custom apps
• Larger storage and processing capacity

It's also important to note the intrinsic popularity of the subnotebook, the topic appears on Slashdot periodically and that particular article received over 1,000 Diggs. That means people are at least curious about the concept and they're waiting to be sold on its benefits.

Subnotebook-type devices also struggle against the "always-on" nature of mobile phones. It's rarely necessary to wait through the regular boot-up sequence users encounter when using traditionally Linux or Windows power computers. An instant on feature or very fast boot-up process could go a long way to tempt new users, though then that raises questions surrounding battery consumption.

Overall, subnotebooks and mobile phones serve different segments. The mobile phone segment is just larger.

The mobile revolution is here.

I think in an important way Mobile computing took off...yesterday. For many of us mobile is already a key part of the digital working lifestyle.   Although data indicates that smartphone use is currently growing only about as fast as that of laptops I think almost all the conventional wisdom and commercial plans suggest that the laptop vs smartphone usage curve will soon diverge and mobile phones will represent the key mobile device globally and into the future.

Big Companies are already big mobile believers.

Companies like Google, Yahoo, and MSN have begun to focus on mobile as the key growth area for much of their business and advertising, though it remains unclear how mobile advertising will be deployed and if it will be as successful as pay per click and other forms of online advertising that now drive revenues across much of the web.

Smartphones are the killer device in the equation

Phones as the key to the mobile castle.   As the Wall Street Journal recently reported workers are increasingly leaving their main computers at home and using smartphones as their portable laptop and laptops instead of their old desktops.

Although I use a subnotebook often, I'm not convinced that subnotebooks are much more than a transitional type of computer, as the most common working approach is to have a laptop for your home and office and longer work periods and a smartphone for the purposes of total mobility.  I do believe the average size, weight, and cost of laptops will continue to fall but will probably "re-center" the market at weights of about 2-3 pounds and screen sizes of about 10-12 inches.  I see this as about the optimal specs for a quality work experience that is truly mobile, and I think this style of laptop will dominate within 12 months now that prices have become so affordable and so many users no longer need any applications other than a browser and internet connectivity.

Cloud computing is mobile friendly

The role of cloud computing is very significant to the growth of mobile because it pushes the infrastructure requirements away from the device.  The more one's email, pictures, data, information, social networking, and applications lie in the cloud, the simpler and cheaper the mobile devices needed to access that information. 

There is a very powerful trends towards holding most work in the cloud as many digital nomads do right now and most regular users will certainly do in the future.

The future ... is mobile

In summary mobile is not only here to stay and to grow, it will soon eclipse conventional computing as the dominant form of internet access.

Maybe a better question is: Will we still be using QWERTY keyboards in 50 years? Or will we finally develop a slick speech-to-voice interface, making mobile communications much easier (especially on our fingers). If users could speak instead of typing, phones and laptops would become indistinguishable for routine functions like messaging and emails, which would be dictated — along with the URLs (or keywords) for desired web sites. When there's a good speech-to-voice solution, convergence is inevitable — and mobile usage will explode.

Maybe the distinction is just in our heads. After all, if you equip your laptop with Skype and a wireless broadband connection — it becomes a big cell phone. And keyboards are important for another reason. We learned in high school economics: demand increases when prices drop. The keyboard HAS been a stumbling block, not just because they're bulky to carry around, but because they're expensive to manufacture. Mobile computing will experience a surge as prices drop — whether through the elimination of the keyboard, or other exciting cost-saving advances.

Wireless broadband should also increase the adoption of mobile devices. I worked at a magazine about cell phones in 2000, and we marveled at how popular cell phones were — in Japan and Europe. One theory said that U.S. consumers weren't impressed by mobile devices because their home computers offered faster internet connections (along with bigger screens). I remember when Metricom was offering 128 kbps wireless service in 15 U.S. cities — giving them a potential market of 45 million users. Metricom spent so much building their network, it cost them nearly $1,000 for each and every user — and by the next year, they'd gone bankrupt. Even back then, we were eagerly awaiting the FCC's release of new spectrum — and eight years later, it's finally happened.

Mobile computer will also get a big boost when Bluetooth applications reach a critical mass. I'm surprised there haven't been more exploration of spontaneous networks — with every cell phone a node — creating "temporary" ad hoc, networking for file-trading and socializing. (A kind of homebrewed Napster?) Microsoft's Xune flirted with this, suggesting some engineers have been thinking about it. This could give users an online experience that's more personal than the vastness of the internet — and create a unique value proposition for mobile devices.

Science fiction writer William Gibson once argued that the world changes before we realize that it has. Mobile devices are already taken for granted, so we don't notice as they're gradually getting more powerful. (And we're already using laptops; they're just getting smaller.) Maybe the writer to refer to would be Larry Niven, who analyzed technological development in even simpler terms. "Any science sufficiently advanced will be indistinguishable from magic." With enough time and technological development, our devices can "magically" acquire any capabilities we want — with cell phones magically morphing into laptops, and vice versa.