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The UMPC is going to get major traction this year.  The MacBook Air will provide visibility to the UMPC market in general to the world, which will then likely adopt vast amounts of cheaper alternatives, as often happens with Apple's products.  For the Macbook Air to get serious adoption, its price will have to drop. 

Note the trend of the iPhone purchases before and after the price drop... Apple is accustomed to releasing products at the maximum price the market will bear, and then offering a price cut to get the masses to adopt the product, once the initial wave of impulse purchases wanes. 

The Macbook Air will likely never go down in price to the point of the Asus EEE PC (around $400).  This device is likely to enter into any discussion about the Macbook Air, since it provides a smaller form factor and similar general-use feature set for about 1/3 of the price.  The Macbook Air is a more powerful computer, but the Asus EEE PC will surf the internet just the same, and can fit into tiny places.  I was shocked to find out about it, since I assumed that a device like the EEE PC would have universal adoption already if it existed.  

The Macbook Air will be the "Ferrari" of UMPC's, selling to a group of elite users, but the EEE PC will be the "Honda Civic", selling to practically everyone on the heels of the idea that UMPC's are in fact worthwhile investments.

I think it's a mistake to view the MacBook Air as an ultra-mobile PC. I'm not sure exactly what the dividing line is, but the MacBook Air has a screen and keyboard that are roughly the same size as a standard laptop. It's thinner and lighter than other laptops, to be sure, but it's not the kind of paradigm-shifting product that the PowerBook Duo series was 15 years ago. The first Duos, released way back in 1992, were 10" by 8" and weighed 4 pounds. The MacBook Air is 13" by 9" and weighs 3 pounds. In other words, it has a much larger footprint than the Apple subnotebooks of the last decade, and only a little bit lighter.

A modern ultra-mobile PC, such as the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASUS_Eee_PC">Asus Eee PC</a>, is 9" by 6" and weighs two pounds. This kind of small form factor opens the door for people to use it in ways they wouldn't use a standard laptop. The MacBook Air will require a full-sized laptop case to carry it around (a thin laptop case would work, but it still has to have the same footprint) whereas a real subnotebook is closer in size to a paperback book and can fit in a purse, the front pocket of a backpack, etc. It'll fit more comfortably on airplane tray tables and will be noticeably lighter than the MacBook Air.

With that said, I think the MacBook Air will sell well. It's a well-designed, full-featured laptop that happens to weigh less than Apple's other laptops. That's obviously attractive. And most likely the techniques they used to get the MacBook Air so thin will trickle down to Apple's other laptops. But I think it would be a mistake to think about this as a separate, niche product. It's an evolutionary improvement over Apple's existing laptops, and it will appeal to anyone who would have bought a MacBook but has more money to blow, and to anyone who would have bought a MacBook Pro but doesn't need all the features that add weight to the full-sized version. I <i>don't</i> think it will be especially compelling for someone who wants the smallest, lightest laptop on the market. Those users will need to stay on the PC side, where there's a much wider variety of small, light notebooks. Or wait until Apple gets around to producing a genuine tablet version of the iPod Touch, which <i>would</i> be a genuinely revolutionary product. 

Since before the demise of the 12-inch G-4 Powerbook the Mac rumor sites have been discussing a potential Mac-Subnotebook as successor to the fabled Duo. Some expected a 10.3 inch companion computer based on the iphone OS X, with 16g of solid-state HD, others were hoping for a slimmer version of the Macbook consumer notebook. Not until a few days before Macworld where people suggesting anything like the Macbook Air. Therefore, mixed into the excitement of the announcement was disappointment of the people that had hoped for something with a smaller footprint and a lower price point. These disappointed potential customers now are looking at Linux-based alternatives, like the second iteration of the Asus eeepc or the Dell XPS.

Over-Engineered, Under-Powered and Over-Priced, but Somehow Sexy

The Macbook Air reminds us of the more general problem of the subnotebooks-category: Since the late 1990s the hypothesis was that subnotebooks will be the next big thing, however, it never materialized. The reason is that subnotebooks are over-engineered, underpowered, and overpriced.

• Because the are over-engineered we are confronted with first generations of products that do not live up to expectations and second generations that the producers do not invest enough effort in. The history of subnotebook computing is littered with one-shot experiments (OLPC), extinct subnotebook product lines (Fujitsu, Sony, etc.), and unsuccesful input devices (tablet-computing, origami, etc.).

• Subnotebooks are underpowered, because of the trade off between weight and power. This means that in side-by-side comparisons with normal notebooks, subnotebooks always loose.

• They are overpriced, in order to cover the development costs and because marketing assumes that senior executives are the most lucrative niche for the product.

As consumers we love the idea of an all-purpose, always-on, always-connected computing device. And we can imagine a world, where our data resides in the cloud, we use on-the-go computing devices for most of our computing tasks. So, clearly, there is money left on the table.

Growth Through Cannibalization

The full-size notebook market took off, when firms started to sell notebooks as desktop replacement to consumers at comparative prices. It is not that the cutthroat consumer market is the most lucrative or even the biggest market in computing, however, it is the market with the greatest mindshare and products positioned squarely into this hyper-competitive market generate the highest publicity possible.

So only when sub-notebooks will be priced in competition with the Dell-Inspiron line will the market take off, economies of scale and learning effects will kick in, and the transformational potential of personalized computing will be realized. This can be achieved, if we apply the logic of commodity-product engineering to the sub-notebook category and a laser-guided focus on that what is necessary. The killer-personal computing device of 2008 would have a 10.3 -12 inch screen (1200x800), a low-voltage 1.5 Ghz single-core processor, an 8-18 GB solid-state HD, a fairly useful keyboard, Wlan, an SD-card reader, and two USB-ports. It is not rocket-science. It would come with a standard flavor Linux distribution (Mint or Ubuntu), an adapted version of OS X, or Windows XP, a free one-year subscription to some type of cloud-computing services (hard-drive, syncing to home computer). An Ipod could always be used as a hard-drive, etc.

Such a disruptive personal computing device would not cost much both in development time and effort. If successful, it will be copied fairly quickly, a competitive market will be created, development cycles will speed up, and it will wipe out the existing luxury UMPC market. It will further the trend towards web-applications, put pressure on Microsoft Windows, and might give the idea of the desktop PC/Home Server second wind (as a companion to the more mobile devide). In the medium term it would greatly reduce the classical notebook market, but would tremendously increase the overall market.

Stricly speaking the Macbook Air isn't an UMPC. UMPCs are supposed to be smaller than traditional laptops with 7 inch screens running at 800x480. It's a full size laptop that is incredibly thin and light. This means it's easier to carry, but it doesn't mean it can be used in more mobile scenarios. Given it's 13.3 inch screen you still need to set it down on a table to really use it and even though its thin and light, it may not work well in cramped spaces like behind reclined coach airline seats. All of that said consumers will consider it as other notebook option, just as in this Gizmodo Macbook Air review and the comparison chart below:

This leads to the bigger question of what UMPCs are and what will help the market to grow. UMPCs are about small footprints and increasingly connectivity. All the current UMPCs on the market support WiFi and are looking to incorporate WAN support through HSPA and WiMax. To date the biggest issue holding back UMPCs is price. Most cost about the same as a laptop or just slighty less but typically can't match the performance. So they have been consumer flops but devices such as the OQO have some limited vertical market traction.

There are two devices on the market that will start changing the game, in very different ways. First, is the iPhone. The combination of size, connectivity, state of the art web-browser and price it is pretty close to the UMPC vision even though it lacks most traditional PC functionaly. The key is the combination of mobile ease-of-use and web access. As more and more computing moves to the web, the iPhone, with is great browser and touch interface will not be incredibly useful, but usable in many different mobile contexts. Just as the the Blackberry freed email, the iPhone will free the web.

The second device that will help the UMPC market is the ASUS EeePC. Priced at $400 this is a very small, inexpensive Linux-based machine with Firefox, media player and OpenOffice suite. The combination of PC functionality, size and low cost is making this little machine very hard to find. And the beauty of this machine is that can work for so many different types of users. In the UK one company is marketing it as low cost student machine. On the other end of the spectrum, the size and low cost make it an impulse buy for anyone who wants to travel with something more capable than a Blackberry, but easier to carry than a regular laptop.

In conclusion, the key to the UMPC market is size, cost and connetivity.

First, with a full-size keyboard and 13.3" screen, the MacBook Air is really an edge case in the ultra-portable market. Even though it's 50% smaller than the 12" Powerbook, and roughly 10% smaller than an Asus Eee PC in volume, many consider the footprint to be the prime factor is placing computers into that category. And the MBA is, of course, the same footprint as an existing MacBook.

That said, I don't believe that MBA will flop, despite the many tradeoffs and compromises that went into obtaining that ulta-thin form factor. 

First, its a Mac. And it's the only "ultra-portable" on the market that is a Mac and that runs OS X, thus fulfilling a distinct role and function in Apple's product lineup. And one thats been missing since the 12" Powerbook was eliminated during the Intel conversion. As such, its bound to find a niche, with the question then becoming "how large a niche?"

I've maintained that the MacBook Air isn't really suitable as someone's only computer, espescially if you're managing a lot of documents, photos, and videos, not to mention maintaining a music, TV, and movie library of any size. The processor, while capable, is a bit slow, and with 80 or 64 GBs of storage, it lacks disk space. That said, if you're a journalist or writer or executive, it could well be your dream machine. And it's nearly perfect as a take-it-to-a-meeting secondary computer, with an iMac or Mac Pro around at work or home to do the "heavy-lifting" in terms of Photoshop or video-editing or development.

I personally ordered one to serve this very need, as  I was begining to dread dragging around a full-sized MacBook Pro in my backpack.

Finally, implicit in the question is a comparison regarding the MacBook Air and the overall ultra-portable market. And I find such comparisons to be dangerous. As mentioned, the MBA has no competition in the Mac marketplace, while UMPCs are available from many manufacturers. Apple has a loyal (often fanatical) fan base, which can't really be said of Dell or HP. Apple has choosen a "full-size" (though super-thin) form factor, while UMPCs are often cramped and to many ill-suited for tasks of any significant duration.

Apple has an entire infrastructure in place and around the Air, with wireless backups (Time Machine/Time Capsule), user account syncronization (.Mac), the iTunes store with wireless music purchasing and movie rentals, native iPhone and iPod syncronization, iLife and iWork, wireless disk and printer and speaker sharing (AirPort), and wireless music and movie streaming (Apple TV). All designed to work together, quickly and easily and seamlessly. Capabilties that the typical UMPC would be hard-pressed to match.

And if you count the number of times that the word "wireless" appears in the preceeding paragraph, one begins to see what Apple truly has in mind for its desktops and notebooks and users.

There is a market, but the question is what is the "secret sauce" to bring it all together?

In the past five years there have been many advances to bring true desktop computing to a small form factor. Many things have changed since the first UMPC (which arguably could be the Cassiopeia A-20) but main questions of "What does the user want to accomplish" needs to be at the forefront. These questions were at the forefront during the design of the Cassiopeia.

Understand that when Casio went forward with the Cassiopeia, it was marketed as a "laptop replacement". I could browse the internet, edit word and excel documents on it, but it wasn't a "true computing experience."

Today, many things have changed, and while the educated would in 1997 would have never have seen the A-20 as a laptop replacement, the MacBookAir is fascinating because it has an incredibly great chance... Albeit, for Mac Users.

Understand that up until recently, UMPCs have typically been Microsoft-based. There's also an adoption curve that Apple will need to overcome. Software availability and support will be a big question. And therein lies the biggest challenge. Like the Cassiopeia, the MacBookAir both have similarities- both devices lack removable media, both lack a defined upgrade path.

So about application of the technology- Apple has done a fantastic job for the consumer. But if Apple wants to appeal to the business community, MacBookAir misses the mark

MacBookAir has WiFi capabilities, and Apple has created, and fantastically executed upon a Remote Disc strategy. The addition of WiMAX, EDGE, HSDPA or CDMA option would have been fantastic for the business user and speed adoption within the business and/or creative class.

It's been reported that Remote Disc does not support remote DVD viewing, and quite possibly future-looking technologies such as BluRay and HD-DVD. These are issues which the WinTel platform hasn't addressed either.

So MacBookAir has a lot of promise, and quite possibly is the best execution of the UMPC platform to date. But a problem exists in Apple's execution and overcoming the objections at time of sale. To take away a few "Common staples" like an optical drive presents a new user experience, something which will be difficult to overcome for a "laptop customer". MacBookAir is the best UMPC available, but it's not a laptop in the classical sense. It should not be marketed as such.

Another hurdle is that it becomes easy for a sales representative at a local Best Buy, et al to suggest a lower-cost WinTel option. Apple needs to nurture this relationship somehow. If not already in place, I would suggest local account managers to manage the relationship.

The MacBook Air arguably represents an Apple product that is all style and little substance.  Unlike the stylish *but highly practical* offerings from Apple like the Macintosh, iPOD, and iPhone - offerings that have made Apple hardware legendary and created for Apple a sizeable and dedicated cadre of Apple fans, the MacBook Air feels more like a sexy and stylish product that is still looking for a market.    Even the legitimate hype regarding the units thickness has been somewhat overblown as other computers with more robust feature sets are lighter that the MacBook Air and some are even close to the same thickness.  

As MacBook Air reviews start to pour in they are not particularly impressive.   I think the following negative ZDNET review from somebody who initially was very excited about the new offering is representative of reviews we'll be seeing a lot of in the coming weeks as the Air hits the mainstream market:  http://blogs.zdnet.com/hardware/?p=1163

Here are more early reviews: http://www.mahalo.com/MacBook_Air_Reviews

Will the MacBook Air flop like other Ultra-Mobile PC (UMPC) attempts?

Not flop because the aggressive and clever Apple marketing machine will trump the product's deficiencies.   In fact Apple's marketing campaign for the MacBook Air is likely to breath some life into the broader UMPC market as it will inform consumers about the increasing number of options for portable computing.     

Will the overall mini-laptop market get a second wind?    Yes, though I think the MacBook Air is more likely to help indirectly from advertising, raising awareness of a "new" type of laptop rather than helping from huge product sales of the MacBook Air.   As with many technologies I think consumers have become overwhelmed with choices.   Only a decade ago few business people would have owned a laptop computer.    Now, as many are familiar with the challenges of lugging around a regular laptop, we'll probably see increasingly adoption of UMPC technologies.     I do think a caveat here may be the quality of the new crop of mobile phones, most of which are starting to take over many functions of the computer even as the computer is moving more to internet networking for many tasks.   Innovative new keyboard and screen technologies could combine with online mail and applications to effectively obsolete the UMPC.    Ideally we'd only need ONE device on which to do all our work but this is a long way off.    Consumers would almost certainly settle for a world where mobile computing is done by a smartphone with keyboard and screen enhancements and interfacing with stable PCs set up at work and/or home.   That said, I think the screen and keyboard advantages of UMPCs will lead to their adoption as the mobile computing device of choice starting very soon and lasting at least through the next few years.

Is the MacBook Air a niche product that appeals to a small number of consumers, or will it actually suit more widespread tastes and fill demand for more portable computing?

The MacBook Air is a niche product for style obsessed technological anorexics who are willing to forego a robust computing environment for the Apple mystique.    Although this is not a trivial number of people they will not create enough demand to make the MacBook Air a bit hit.     If a UMPC is eventually going to be a big hit with consumers I don't think this is the device that will break the UMPC barriers except as noted before by using advertising to bring more widespread acceptance to the ultra mobile computer. 

Market trends:

A report by Global Sources suggests some new life in UMPC market:

South Korea's UMPC market will expand in 2008, mainly through the entry of more suppliers. Many makers of PMPs and navigation devices have announced plans to enter this market and release their first UMPCs in early 2008. More companies are looking at the UMPC line as the convergence point of digital mobile multimedia applications.

Meanwhile, ABI Research suggests that:

"Ultra Mobile PC (UMPC) markets will grow steadily, achieving 4.68 million units shipped in 2012". 

ABI presented this number somewhat optimistically while In-Stat research, reporting on UMPC market in 2006, suggested a larger number but presented it pessimistically:

 the UMPC (Ultra-Mobile PC) market will only reach 7.8 million units by 2011, despite support from industry heavyweights Microsoft and Intel.

These numbers represent some growth, but these projected absolute numbers of UMPCs are tiny and unimpressive when compared to the fact that something like *one billion* new mobile phones are shipped each year and projections suggest this will be about 1.6 billion phones per year by 2012.   As the distinctions between a UMPC and a smartphone erode these trends do not bode well for the UMPC market. http://www.abiresearch.com/products/market_research/Mobile_Internet_Devices_and_ UMPCs

Summary:   

* MacBook Air will not flop but will have little impact on the UMPC market or Apple's bottom line.
* UMPC Market will grow, but only to be a trivial segment of the total hardware market.
* Over the 5+ year time frame UMPC market will erode as improvements to smartphones make most UMPC devices   obsolete or redundant.